The Election Briefing — Wednesday, October 28, 2026

01 / The big story · South Carolina Senate

In a state Trump carried easily, the Senate contest is polling nearly even.

South Carolina's Republican-appointed senator and a Democratic pediatrician are tied in a new Times/Siena survey. A second poll shows a markedly different picture among likely and registered voters.

ELECTION DESK ANALYSIS · PRIMARY SOURCES: SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE AND THE CITADEL POLL · OCTOBER 27–28

South Carolina is the unexpected focal point of Wednesday's Senate polling. A New York Times/Siena survey of 707 likely voters puts Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews at 48 percent each, with 3 percent undecided. Trump carried the state by nearly 18 points in 2024.

That finding does not settle the race. The Citadel's separate October 14–25 survey places Graham at 43 percent and Andrews at 39 percent among 890 likely voters, with a considerably larger undecided group. Different samples, modes and turnout screens can produce different results.

The genuine surprise isn't merely a tied poll. It's the contrast between the state's presidential baseline and the congressional contest, and between the two pollsters' measurements of who intends to vote. Neither survey establishes an election outcome.

Siena release and toplines ↗Citadel's original findings ↗2024 certified vote ↗

02 / Race spotlight

What makes the South Carolina contest different?

Graham, 62, was appointed following the death of her brother, longtime Sen. Lindsey Graham, in July. Andrews, 45, is a pediatrician who previously challenged Rep. Nancy Mace. The candidates have sharply different approaches to reproductive rights, health policy and the Trump administration.

The Citadel found that 62 percent of voters, regardless of their own preference, expected the Republican nominee to win. That is an expectation, not a forecast. Its survey also identified an unusual divide by how recently residents moved to South Carolina.

Among likely voters who moved within five years, Andrews led 50–34. Among those who moved five to ten years ago, Graham led 50–32. Lifelong South Carolinians split 38–38. These are subgroups with greater uncertainty than the statewide sample, but they raise a substantive question about how in-migration changes the electorate.

The Citadel also reported a 56 percent share saying inflation's effects were worse in South Carolina than in neighboring Southern states. That dissatisfaction is a campaign issue, not proof that voters assign responsibility to one party.

Original subgroup findings ↗Citadel crosstabs and methodology ↗

Source details: Siena fielded Oct. 19–26 among 707 likely voters (MOE ±4.3); Citadel surveyed 1,009 registered voters Oct. 14–25, of whom 890 met its likely-voter screen. Citadel's original poll documentation explains sampling, weighting, modes and subgroup limitations. A candidate's personal history does not predict an election outcome.

03 / Campaign strategy & spending

A $183 million bet on an issue only one in ten voters ranks highly

An Associated Press analysis of AdImpact data reveals the scale of Republican television advertising about transgender-related policies—and the gap between that messaging and voters' stated priorities.

$183mGOP-related ads, through Oct. 25

217kEstimated TV airings

$11mComparable Democratic spending

Republican candidates and allied groups have aired an estimated 217,000 television advertisements focused on transgender-related issues, according to the AP's analysis. The estimated $183 million spent through October 25 exceeds the $151 million recorded at the corresponding point in the 2024 general election.

More than $58 million of the spending was concentrated in Texas's Senate race, with nearly $26 million in Ohio. Republican strategists argue that cultural issues can convey larger messages about candidates' values and judgment. Critics say the emphasis distracts from voters' economic concerns and includes claims that candidates dispute.

The test is whether the ads persuade anyone beyond existing supporters. An October AP-NORC poll found only about one in ten registered voters calling transgender issues among their most important election concerns, versus roughly eight in ten citing the economy or cost of living. That discrepancy is noteworthy; it does not demonstrate that the ads are ineffective.

Read the AP investigation and methodology ↗

04 / From the House campaign trail

The Republican who courts labor—and won't rally with Trump

A vivid Bucks County report shows the delicate balance facing Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, even as his party spends to protect his seat.

At a Teamsters gathering outside Philadelphia, Fitzpatrick, a five-term Republican, emphasized his ties to organized labor. He holds a district that backed Kamala Harris in 2024 and has cultivated a more independent image than many House Republicans.

In reporting by Fallon Roth and Sam Janesch, Fitzpatrick said he would not join Trump or Vice President JD Vance at a local rally, despite receiving support from Republican-aligned political organizations. Democratic challenger Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner, argues Fitzpatrick's votes still connect him to the national GOP.

An October 25 New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena survey showed Harvie at 48 percent and Fitzpatrick at 46 percent; the margin is too narrow to establish a leader. Fitzpatrick won by nearly 13 points in 2024. The juxtaposition captures the central question about the extent to which local political brands can survive national headwinds.

Read the Inquirer's reporting ↗Siena's Pennsylvania district polls ↗

05 / Behind the numbers · A feature worth reading

The people who shape the election narrative

Inside the tiny newsroom whose race ratings can move a campaign

The Cook Political Report has spent 42 years turning local intelligence, polling and political judgment into the election ratings that Washington watches. Ian Ward's behind-the-scenes profile shows why it remains influential—and how that influence complicates its work.

A race can move without a single vote changing. When Cook shifts its rating of a House or Senate contest, campaigns, donors and political journalists react. The Washington Post reports that some campaigns have even tried to keep favorable polling from Cook's analysts because a stronger rating might reduce the urgency of fundraising.

Founded by Charlie Cook in 1984, the publication is now led by Amy Walter. Its nine-person staff weighs public and private polling, spending, local sources and campaign advertisements. Proposed rating changes are discussed among editors, and the team is deliberately slower to move than some quantitative models.

That has prompted a revealing debate with election modelers such as Nate Silver: how much weight should accumulated political reporting carry against fast-moving data? The article also examines the Cook team's response to prediction markets and artificial intelligence. It's a story about the craft and incentives of election analysis—not another prediction about November 3.

Read Ian Ward's Washington Post feature ↗See Cook's published race ratings ↗

Ian Ward · The Washington Post · October 28, 2026. Reported profile; Cook's retrospective rating accuracy statistics are its own internal review.

06 / Elsewhere in the world

Israel votes. Neither political bloc has a governing majority.

The most consequential international election development today may be what neither side won: a clear path to 61 Knesset seats.

Israel's national election produced a divided 120-seat parliament, according to preliminary returns. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud remains the largest individual party, but his allies were short of the 61 seats needed for a governing majority. Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc also fell short on its own.

With roughly 85 percent of ballots counted in a Times of Israel update, the Netanyahu-aligned bloc stood at approximately 53 seats, Eisenkot's at 48, and Arab-led parties at 19. Those are provisional counts, not final certified allocations. The stronger performance of Arab-led parties may make their support important to coalition discussions, while significant disagreements among parties complicate possible arrangements.

The result is not a simple victory or defeat for either camp. It opens a round of coalition negotiations in which parliamentary arithmetic, relationships among parties and President Isaac Herzog's consultations will matter. Official results are still being finalized.

Follow the original local reporting ↗AP election analysis ↗

07 / Two other Senate snapshots

Minnesota and Florida move in very different directions

The same Times/Siena release that startled South Carolina also measured two other Senate contests.

State	Democrat	Republican
Minnesota	Peggy Flanagan 54%	Michele Tafoya 40%
Florida	Angie Nixon 44%	Ashley Moody 50%

Both are separate statewide likely-voter samples: Minnesota, 752 voters surveyed October 19–26, margin of error ±4.1 points; Florida, 813 likely voters surveyed October 19–25, margin of error ±3.9 points. The figures describe support in different electorates and should not be read as a national trend or a prediction.

Full Siena polling release ↗

What Wednesday tells us

Look at the candidates and constituencies, not just the national polling environment.

South Carolina offers a surprise, Pennsylvania shows a Republican incumbent testing the limits of an independent image, and the advertising research reveals what campaigns think will move voters. All three are more specific—and more revealing—than another generic account of a national partisan lead.